Incumbent Democratic Governor Josh Green holds a commanding position in the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial race, with traders assigning his reelection a 96.5% implied probability. Hawaii’s consistent Democratic dominance in statewide contests, reinforced by Green’s decisive August primary win and the party’s long record of holding the governorship, underpins this consensus. Green benefits from superior fundraising, established name recognition, and recent actions such as seeking expedited federal hurricane recovery aid. Republican nominee Gary Cordery, who secured his party’s nomination with a strong primary showing, faces structural barriers in a state where Republicans have not won the office since 2006. Late developments including major scandals, health events, or sharp shifts in voter turnout could still alter outcomes before November 3.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHawaii Governor Election Winner
Hawaii Governor Election Winner
$15,685 Vol.
$15,685 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Josh Green (D)
97%
Gary Cordery (R)
1%
$15,685 Vol.
$15,685 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Josh Green (D)
$7,024 Vol.
97%
Gary Cordery (R)
$8,661 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Governor Josh Green holds a commanding position in the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial race, with traders assigning his reelection a 96.5% implied probability. Hawaii’s consistent Democratic dominance in statewide contests, reinforced by Green’s decisive August primary win and the party’s long record of holding the governorship, underpins this consensus. Green benefits from superior fundraising, established name recognition, and recent actions such as seeking expedited federal hurricane recovery aid. Republican nominee Gary Cordery, who secured his party’s nomination with a strong primary showing, faces structural barriers in a state where Republicans have not won the office since 2006. Late developments including major scandals, health events, or sharp shifts in voter turnout could still alter outcomes before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercato aperto: Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ET
Volume
$15,685Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Governor Josh Green holds a commanding position in the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial race, with traders assigning his reelection a 96.5% implied probability. Hawaii’s consistent Democratic dominance in statewide contests, reinforced by Green’s decisive August primary win and the party’s long record of holding the governorship, underpins this consensus. Green benefits from superior fundraising, established name recognition, and recent actions such as seeking expedited federal hurricane recovery aid. Republican nominee Gary Cordery, who secured his party’s nomination with a strong primary showing, faces structural barriers in a state where Republicans have not won the office since 2006. Late developments including major scandals, health events, or sharp shifts in voter turnout could still alter outcomes before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$15,685Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Governor Josh Green holds a commanding position in the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial race, with traders assigning his reelection a 96.5% implied probability. Hawaii’s consistent Democratic dominance in statewide contests, reinforced by Green’s decisive August primary win and the party’s long record of holding the governorship, underpins this consensus. Green benefits from superior fundraising, established name recognition, and recent actions such as seeking expedited federal hurricane recovery aid. Republican nominee Gary Cordery, who secured his party’s nomination with a strong primary showing, faces structural barriers in a state where Republicans have not won the office since 2006. Late developments including major scandals, health events, or sharp shifts in voter turnout could still alter outcomes before November 3.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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