Michigan stands out as the leading outcome in this market because it is an open Democratic seat in a battleground state with an even partisan voting index, where recent polling shows the Democratic nominee competitive or narrowly ahead after a contentious primary. Republican-held tossups in Alaska, Maine, Texas, Iowa, and Ohio face steeper structural challenges in states Trump carried by wider margins in 2024, even as those contests have tightened amid broader forecasts shifting toward parity for Senate control. Analysts rate all six as tossups or near-tossups, with limited late polling and candidate-specific factors like ranked-choice voting in Alaska or incumbent familiarity in Maine keeping secondary probabilities in play ahead of November.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa miglior gara di lancio al Senato dei democratici?
La miglior gara di lancio al Senato dei democratici?
Michigan 56%
Alaska 16%
Maine 15%
Texas 7%
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 nov 2026
Michigan
56%
Alaska
16%
Maine
15%
Texas
7%
Iowa
3%
Ohio
3%
Michigan 56%
Alaska 16%
Maine 15%
Texas 7%
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 nov 2026
Michigan
$2,711 Vol.
56%
Alaska
$221 Vol.
16%
Maine
$226 Vol.
15%
Texas
$134 Vol.
7%
Iowa
$129 Vol.
3%
Ohio
$293 Vol.
3%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Michigan stands out as the leading outcome in this market because it is an open Democratic seat in a battleground state with an even partisan voting index, where recent polling shows the Democratic nominee competitive or narrowly ahead after a contentious primary. Republican-held tossups in Alaska, Maine, Texas, Iowa, and Ohio face steeper structural challenges in states Trump carried by wider margins in 2024, even as those contests have tightened amid broader forecasts shifting toward parity for Senate control. Analysts rate all six as tossups or near-tossups, with limited late polling and candidate-specific factors like ranked-choice voting in Alaska or incumbent familiarity in Maine keeping secondary probabilities in play ahead of November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Volume
$3,714Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Michigan stands out as the leading outcome in this market because it is an open Democratic seat in a battleground state with an even partisan voting index, where recent polling shows the Democratic nominee competitive or narrowly ahead after a contentious primary. Republican-held tossups in Alaska, Maine, Texas, Iowa, and Ohio face steeper structural challenges in states Trump carried by wider margins in 2024, even as those contests have tightened amid broader forecasts shifting toward parity for Senate control. Analysts rate all six as tossups or near-tossups, with limited late polling and candidate-specific factors like ranked-choice voting in Alaska or incumbent familiarity in Maine keeping secondary probabilities in play ahead of November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,714Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Michigan stands out as the leading outcome in this market because it is an open Democratic seat in a battleground state with an even partisan voting index, where recent polling shows the Democratic nominee competitive or narrowly ahead after a contentious primary. Republican-held tossups in Alaska, Maine, Texas, Iowa, and Ohio face steeper structural challenges in states Trump carried by wider margins in 2024, even as those contests have tightened amid broader forecasts shifting toward parity for Senate control. Analysts rate all six as tossups or near-tossups, with limited late polling and candidate-specific factors like ranked-choice voting in Alaska or incumbent familiarity in Maine keeping secondary probabilities in play ahead of November.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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