Harry Kane leads the 2026 Ballon d’Or market at 62.5% implied probability after a record-breaking 2025-26 campaign with Bayern Munich, where he scored over 60 goals across all competitions while contributing playmaking and leadership in a Bundesliga title-winning side. His output extended to England’s strong World Cup run, including multiple goals in knockout stages. Spain’s World Cup victory elevates Lamine Yamal (16.2%) and Rodri (4.5%) despite Yamal’s injury-limited tournament role and Rodri’s prior win in 2024, reflecting voter emphasis on collective success and midfield control. Kylian Mbappé (10.9%) benefits from standout club form at Real Madrid but trails due to France’s semifinal exit. Lower-priced contenders such as Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Ousmane Dembélé reflect PSG’s Champions League success without matching Kane’s individual volume or the Spanish duo’s international pedigree. The shortlist was finalized in early September ahead of the October ceremony.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHarry Kane 62.5%
Lamine Yamal 16.2%
Kylian Mbappé 10.9%
Rodri 5%
$34,137,676 Vol.
$34,137,676 Vol.
Harry Kane
62%
Lamine Yamal
16%
Kylian Mbappé
11%
Rodri
5%
Lionel Messi
3%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
3%
Fabian Ruiz
1%
Ousmane Dembélé
1%
Michael Olise
<1%
Erling Haaland
<1%
Jude Bellingham
<1%
Vitinha
<1%
Vinícius Júnior
<1%
Declan Rice
<1%
Bruno Fernandes
<1%
Lautaro Martinez
<1%
Achraf Hakimi
<1%
Luis Diaz
<1%
Pau Cubarsi
<1%
Harry Kane 62.5%
Lamine Yamal 16.2%
Kylian Mbappé 10.9%
Rodri 5%
$34,137,676 Vol.
$34,137,676 Vol.
Harry Kane
62%
Lamine Yamal
16%
Kylian Mbappé
11%
Rodri
5%
Lionel Messi
3%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
3%
Fabian Ruiz
1%
Ousmane Dembélé
1%
Michael Olise
<1%
Erling Haaland
<1%
Jude Bellingham
<1%
Vitinha
<1%
Vinícius Júnior
<1%
Declan Rice
<1%
Bruno Fernandes
<1%
Lautaro Martinez
<1%
Achraf Hakimi
<1%
Luis Diaz
<1%
Pau Cubarsi
<1%
If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Mercato aperto: Sep 22, 2025, 7:24 PM ET
Risolutore
0x2F5e3684c...If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Risolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Harry Kane leads the 2026 Ballon d’Or market at 62.5% implied probability after a record-breaking 2025-26 campaign with Bayern Munich, where he scored over 60 goals across all competitions while contributing playmaking and leadership in a Bundesliga title-winning side. His output extended to England’s strong World Cup run, including multiple goals in knockout stages. Spain’s World Cup victory elevates Lamine Yamal (16.2%) and Rodri (4.5%) despite Yamal’s injury-limited tournament role and Rodri’s prior win in 2024, reflecting voter emphasis on collective success and midfield control. Kylian Mbappé (10.9%) benefits from standout club form at Real Madrid but trails due to France’s semifinal exit. Lower-priced contenders such as Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Ousmane Dembélé reflect PSG’s Champions League success without matching Kane’s individual volume or the Spanish duo’s international pedigree. The shortlist was finalized in early September ahead of the October ceremony.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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