Messi’s strong 2026 form, where he leads the Golden Boot race with 19 goals in 22 games for Inter Miami, has not translated into market confidence for the 2027 Sprint Season. Traders cite the abbreviated 14-match regular season running February to May, his age of 39–40, and reports that his boyhood club Newell's Old Boys is planning a return for him in the first half of 2027. These factors raise doubts about his availability and minutes in MLS. Younger, dedicated strikers like Petar Musa and others have closed gaps in recent seasons, while the short campaign format amplifies variance and rewards consistent volume scorers. The 79.5% implied probability on “No” reflects this combination of scheduling uncertainty, career timeline considerations, and competitive depth rather than any decline in his current output.