The Kremlin’s explicit August statement that arranging any encounter with Vladimir Putin falls outside official responsibilities and is not under consideration forms the core driver behind traders’ 98% probability against a meeting by October 31. Ye’s planned St. Petersburg concerts for mid-October remain unresolved after the venue withdrew its commitment and the dates vanished from the artist’s official schedule, eliminating the most plausible travel window without confirmed alternative arrangements. Russian officials have shown no interest in high-profile scheduling with the rapper amid broader constraints on Western performers since 2022. A sudden private encounter could theoretically alter the outcome if travel proceeds on short notice, though the compressed timeline, security protocols, and absence of diplomatic signals make such a development improbable before the resolution deadline.