The NY-07 general election features Democratic nominee Claire Valdez facing Republican Melvin Rivera in a district rated Solid or Safe Democratic by major forecasters, with a partisan lean exceeding D+25. Valdez secured the open seat after Nydia Velázquez’s retirement by winning the June primary with 56 percent against Antonio Reynoso. Trader positioning on margin buckets remains dispersed across 40-45 percent and adjacent ranges because the district’s consistent Democratic performance historically produces large but variable victories depending on turnout patterns, national midterm dynamics, and down-ballot coattails. Limited Republican infrastructure and fundraising constrain the challenger’s path, while the absence of major late-cycle events or shifts in voter composition keeps the most probable outcomes clustered without a single dominant bucket. Scheduled general election voting on November 3 provides the final resolution trigger.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiNY-07 House Election Margin of Victory
NY-07 House Election Margin of Victory
Democrat 40-45% 22%
Democrat 65-70% 19%
Democrat 50-55% 16%
Democrat 55-60% 15.2%
BARU
BARU
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 70%+
2%
Democrat 65-70%
19%
Democrat 60-65%
12%
Democrat 55-60%
15%
Democrat 50-55%
16%
Democrat 45-50%
12%
Democrat 40-45%
22%
Democrat 30-40%
4%
Democrat 0-30%
5%
Republican Wins
<1%
Democrat 40-45% 22%
Democrat 65-70% 19%
Democrat 50-55% 16%
Democrat 55-60% 15.2%
BARU
BARU
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 70%+
$171 Vol.
2%
Democrat 65-70%
$426 Vol.
19%
Democrat 60-65%
$484 Vol.
12%
Democrat 55-60%
$245 Vol.
15%
Democrat 50-55%
$257 Vol.
16%
Democrat 45-50%
$200 Vol.
12%
Democrat 40-45%
$324 Vol.
22%
Democrat 30-40%
$124 Vol.
4%
Democrat 0-30%
$119 Vol.
5%
Republican Wins
$270 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 NY-07 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-07 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The NY-07 general election features Democratic nominee Claire Valdez facing Republican Melvin Rivera in a district rated Solid or Safe Democratic by major forecasters, with a partisan lean exceeding D+25. Valdez secured the open seat after Nydia Velázquez’s retirement by winning the June primary with 56 percent against Antonio Reynoso. Trader positioning on margin buckets remains dispersed across 40-45 percent and adjacent ranges because the district’s consistent Democratic performance historically produces large but variable victories depending on turnout patterns, national midterm dynamics, and down-ballot coattails. Limited Republican infrastructure and fundraising constrain the challenger’s path, while the absence of major late-cycle events or shifts in voter composition keeps the most probable outcomes clustered without a single dominant bucket. Scheduled general election voting on November 3 provides the final resolution trigger.
The 2026 NY-07 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-07 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-07 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 11, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
Volume
$2,620Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 11, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 NY-07 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-07 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The NY-07 general election features Democratic nominee Claire Valdez facing Republican Melvin Rivera in a district rated Solid or Safe Democratic by major forecasters, with a partisan lean exceeding D+25. Valdez secured the open seat after Nydia Velázquez’s retirement by winning the June primary with 56 percent against Antonio Reynoso. Trader positioning on margin buckets remains dispersed across 40-45 percent and adjacent ranges because the district’s consistent Democratic performance historically produces large but variable victories depending on turnout patterns, national midterm dynamics, and down-ballot coattails. Limited Republican infrastructure and fundraising constrain the challenger’s path, while the absence of major late-cycle events or shifts in voter composition keeps the most probable outcomes clustered without a single dominant bucket. Scheduled general election voting on November 3 provides the final resolution trigger.
The 2026 NY-07 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-07 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-07 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,620Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 11, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The NY-07 general election features Democratic nominee Claire Valdez facing Republican Melvin Rivera in a district rated Solid or Safe Democratic by major forecasters, with a partisan lean exceeding D+25. Valdez secured the open seat after Nydia Velázquez’s retirement by winning the June primary with 56 percent against Antonio Reynoso. Trader positioning on margin buckets remains dispersed across 40-45 percent and adjacent ranges because the district’s consistent Democratic performance historically produces large but variable victories depending on turnout patterns, national midterm dynamics, and down-ballot coattails. Limited Republican infrastructure and fundraising constrain the challenger’s path, while the absence of major late-cycle events or shifts in voter composition keeps the most probable outcomes clustered without a single dominant bucket. Scheduled general election voting on November 3 provides the final resolution trigger.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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