Macron’s second and final presidential term runs until May 2027, when he is constitutionally barred from seeking re-election. Recent nationwide protests over living costs, public services, and budget austerity escalated into October 2026 riots involving looting and arson, producing record-low confidence ratings of 13 percent and renewed calls from some former allies for an early departure. A hung parliament since the 2024 snap election has produced repeated government instability and blocked fiscal measures, yet Macron has repeatedly rejected resignation and no-confidence mechanisms target the prime minister rather than the president. Traders therefore assign only a low-single-digit implied probability to an exit before year-end, reflecting the absence of an automatic trigger and Macron’s stated commitment to completing his mandate amid the approach of the April–May 2027 presidential vote.