**The FL-07 contest between Democrat Bale Dalton and Republican Ryan Elijah remains tightly balanced ahead of the November 3 general election, with trader probabilities evenly split between the candidates and concentrated on narrow victory margins.** The seat became open after Ryan Elijah defeated incumbent Cory Mills in the August Republican primary amid ethics concerns that weakened the sitting member. Dalton prevailed in a competitive Democratic primary. The district’s R+3 partisan voting index, suburban growth in areas like Seminole and Orange counties, and rural Republican strength in Lake County create a narrow playing field where small shifts in turnout or voter preference among independents and suburban moderates can decide the outcome. Forecasters rate the race Lean or Likely Republican, but the absence of recent public polling and limited polling history for these nominees sustain uncertainty in margin expectations. Late-cycle developments such as candidate debates, outside spending patterns, or national economic signals could widen or close the gap reflected in current pricing.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiFL-07 House Election Margin of Victory
FL-07 House Election Margin of Victory
Democrat 3-6% 21%
Democrat 6%+ 17%
Republican 12-15% 15%
Republican 6-9% 12.4%
BARU
BARU
Nov 3, 2026
Republican 18%+
7%
Republican 15-18%
4%
Republican 12-15%
15%
Republican 9-12%
4%
Republican 6-9%
12%
Republican 3-6%
6%
Republican 0-3%
12%
Democrat 0-3%
4%
Democrat 3-6%
21%
Democrat 6%+
17%
Democrat 3-6% 21%
Democrat 6%+ 17%
Republican 12-15% 15%
Republican 6-9% 12.4%
BARU
BARU
Nov 3, 2026
Republican 18%+
$61 Vol.
7%
Republican 15-18%
$66 Vol.
4%
Republican 12-15%
$119 Vol.
15%
Republican 9-12%
$193 Vol.
4%
Republican 6-9%
$126 Vol.
12%
Republican 3-6%
$92 Vol.
6%
Republican 0-3%
$85 Vol.
12%
Democrat 0-3%
$92 Vol.
4%
Democrat 3-6%
$100 Vol.
21%
Democrat 6%+
$72 Vol.
17%
The 2026 FL-07 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 FL-07 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The FL-07 contest between Democrat Bale Dalton and Republican Ryan Elijah remains tightly balanced ahead of the November 3 general election, with trader probabilities evenly split between the candidates and concentrated on narrow victory margins.**
The seat became open after Ryan Elijah defeated incumbent Cory Mills in the August Republican primary amid ethics concerns that weakened the sitting member. Dalton prevailed in a competitive Democratic primary. The district’s R+3 partisan voting index, suburban growth in areas like Seminole and Orange counties, and rural Republican strength in Lake County create a narrow playing field where small shifts in turnout or voter preference among independents and suburban moderates can decide the outcome. Forecasters rate the race Lean or Likely Republican, but the absence of recent public polling and limited polling history for these nominees sustain uncertainty in margin expectations. Late-cycle developments such as candidate debates, outside spending patterns, or national economic signals could widen or close the gap reflected in current pricing.
The 2026 FL-07 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 FL-07 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 FL-07 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 7, 2026, 4:13 PM ET
Volume
$1,007Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 7, 2026, 4:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 FL-07 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 FL-07 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The FL-07 contest between Democrat Bale Dalton and Republican Ryan Elijah remains tightly balanced ahead of the November 3 general election, with trader probabilities evenly split between the candidates and concentrated on narrow victory margins.**
The seat became open after Ryan Elijah defeated incumbent Cory Mills in the August Republican primary amid ethics concerns that weakened the sitting member. Dalton prevailed in a competitive Democratic primary. The district’s R+3 partisan voting index, suburban growth in areas like Seminole and Orange counties, and rural Republican strength in Lake County create a narrow playing field where small shifts in turnout or voter preference among independents and suburban moderates can decide the outcome. Forecasters rate the race Lean or Likely Republican, but the absence of recent public polling and limited polling history for these nominees sustain uncertainty in margin expectations. Late-cycle developments such as candidate debates, outside spending patterns, or national economic signals could widen or close the gap reflected in current pricing.
The 2026 FL-07 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 FL-07 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 FL-07 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,007Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 7, 2026, 4:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**The FL-07 contest between Democrat Bale Dalton and Republican Ryan Elijah remains tightly balanced ahead of the November 3 general election, with trader probabilities evenly split between the candidates and concentrated on narrow victory margins.** The seat became open after Ryan Elijah defeated incumbent Cory Mills in the August Republican primary amid ethics concerns that weakened the sitting member. Dalton prevailed in a competitive Democratic primary. The district’s R+3 partisan voting index, suburban growth in areas like Seminole and Orange counties, and rural Republican strength in Lake County create a narrow playing field where small shifts in turnout or voter preference among independents and suburban moderates can decide the outcome. Forecasters rate the race Lean or Likely Republican, but the absence of recent public polling and limited polling history for these nominees sustain uncertainty in margin expectations. Late-cycle developments such as candidate debates, outside spending patterns, or national economic signals could widen or close the gap reflected in current pricing.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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