The Chicago Bears’ long-term lease at Soldier Field through 2033 removes any immediate pressure to relocate operations or home games, anchoring the franchise in Illinois regardless of stadium negotiations. As of mid-August 2026, team president Kevin Warren described Northwest Indiana sites in Hammond as the “sole focus” for a potential domed venue, yet due diligence on multiple locations continues without a finalized site selection, groundbreaking, or construction timeline. Illinois legislative efforts to secure tax certainty for an Arlington Heights project stalled in the House earlier in the year, though fall veto sessions and ongoing talks with Governor JB Pritzker keep an in-state option viable. Any approved project would require extended permitting, financing, and multi-year build time before the team could shift its primary base, making an exit from Illinois by December 31 improbable under current NFL facility timelines and the wisdom of crowds reflected in the 83.5% implied probability for “No.”