Tesla’s Optimus production ramp at the converted Fremont facility, combined with supply-chain audits in China for Gen 3 components, underpins low trader-implied odds of a commercial release by year-end 2026. Low-volume internal builds have begun for data collection and training, yet no verified external customer shipments have occurred amid the complexity of scaling 10,000 unique parts and new actuator systems. Historical timeline slippage, JPMorgan’s note on 2027 commercial sales, and competition from more mature humanoids like those from Figure AI reinforce caution. Key near-term catalysts include potential Gen 3 design confirmation, Q3 earnings updates on unit output, and progress at the emerging Giga Texas line.