Nominations for the 2026 VMAs Best Choreography category, announced in mid-August, set the stage for a tightly contested race among six videos. Trader sentiment currently favors Harry Styles’ “Dance No More” at 33% implied probability, driven by its energetic gym-to-disco sequences choreographed by Ryan Heffington and strong fan engagement. Tate McRae’s “Nobody’s Girl” (21%) benefits from (LA)HORDE’s expressive, liberating movements, while GENER8ION featuring Yung Lean’s “Storm” (18%) highlights Damien Jalet’s inventive direction. KATSEYE’s “Pinky Up” (15%) stands out for its precise group synchronization, with Madonna’s “Confessions II – The Film” (8%) and Taylor Swift’s “The Fate of Ophelia” (7.5%) trailing amid historical patterns and competing momentum. The Sept. 27 ceremony and fan-voting window through Sept. 25 remain key catalysts.