Lebanon's parliamentary elections, originally set for 2026, were postponed two years to May 2028 amid the Israel-Hezbollah war and related security disruptions. This timeline, combined with the confessional proportional representation system requiring cross-sectarian alliances for majorities in the 128-seat chamber, contributes to the fragmented trader consensus across listed parties. Recent parliamentary sessions renewing confidence in Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s government highlighted persistent divisions, with Amal Movement backing the cabinet while Hezbollah withdrew from the vote. Post-war priorities such as reconstruction, extending state authority over weapons, and Israeli withdrawal negotiations further complicate bloc formations. The wide distribution of low probabilities reflects uncertainty over how shifting alliances, voter turnout in key districts, and external diplomatic pressures could consolidate or disperse seats among established groups like the Shiite alliance, Christian parties, and Druze-led lists.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयालेबनान संसदीय चुनाव विजेता
लेबनान संसदीय चुनाव विजेता
अमल मूवमेंट (अमल) <1%
हिज़्बुल्लाह (हिज़्ब) <1%
लेबनानी फोर्सेज (एलएफ) <1%
फ्री पैट्रियॉटिक मूवमेंट (एफपीएम) <1%
$677,348 वॉल्यूम
$677,348 वॉल्यूम
अमल मूवमेंट (अमल)
1%
हिज़्बुल्लाह (हिज़्ब)
<1%
लेबनानी फोर्सेज (एलएफ)
<1%
फ्री पैट्रियॉटिक मूवमेंट (एफपीएम)
<1%
प्रोग्रेसिव सोशलिस्ट पार्टी (पीएसपी)
<1%
काताेब पार्टी (काताेब)
<1%
अर्मेनियाई क्रांतिकारी संघ (एआरएफ)
<1%
मरादा मूवमेंट (एमएम)
<1%
इंडिपेंडेंस मूवमेंट (आईएम)
<1%
तकद्दुम पार्टी
<1%
इस्लामिक चैरिटेबल प्रोजेक्ट्स एसोसिएशन (ICPA)
<1%
इस्लामी समूह (आईजी)
<1%
यूनियन पार्टी (यूपी)
<1%
लेबनान में अरब समाजवादी बाथ पार्टी (बाथ)
<1%
नेशनल लिबरल पार्टी (एनएलपी)
<1%
लाना – सोशल डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी (लाना)
<1%
माडा पार्टी (माडा)
<1%
खत्त अहमर
<1%
पॉपुलर नासेरिस्ट ऑर्गनाइजेशन (PNO)
<1%
नेशनल डायलॉग पार्टी (एनडीपी)
<1%
डिग्निटी मूवमेंट (डीएम)
<1%
वतनी गठबंधन (वतनी)
<1%
ReLebanon
<1%
अमल मूवमेंट (अमल) <1%
हिज़्बुल्लाह (हिज़्ब) <1%
लेबनानी फोर्सेज (एलएफ) <1%
फ्री पैट्रियॉटिक मूवमेंट (एफपीएम) <1%
$677,348 वॉल्यूम
$677,348 वॉल्यूम
अमल मूवमेंट (अमल)
1%
हिज़्बुल्लाह (हिज़्ब)
<1%
लेबनानी फोर्सेज (एलएफ)
<1%
फ्री पैट्रियॉटिक मूवमेंट (एफपीएम)
<1%
प्रोग्रेसिव सोशलिस्ट पार्टी (पीएसपी)
<1%
काताेब पार्टी (काताेब)
<1%
अर्मेनियाई क्रांतिकारी संघ (एआरएफ)
<1%
मरादा मूवमेंट (एमएम)
<1%
इंडिपेंडेंस मूवमेंट (आईएम)
<1%
तकद्दुम पार्टी
<1%
इस्लामिक चैरिटेबल प्रोजेक्ट्स एसोसिएशन (ICPA)
<1%
इस्लामी समूह (आईजी)
<1%
यूनियन पार्टी (यूपी)
<1%
लेबनान में अरब समाजवादी बाथ पार्टी (बाथ)
<1%
नेशनल लिबरल पार्टी (एनएलपी)
<1%
लाना – सोशल डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी (लाना)
<1%
माडा पार्टी (माडा)
<1%
खत्त अहमर
<1%
पॉपुलर नासेरिस्ट ऑर्गनाइजेशन (PNO)
<1%
नेशनल डायलॉग पार्टी (एनडीपी)
<1%
डिग्निटी मूवमेंट (डीएम)
<1%
वतनी गठबंधन (वतनी)
<1%
ReLebanon
<1%
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET
रिज़ॉल्वर
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
रिज़ॉल्वर
0x2F5e3684c...Lebanon's parliamentary elections, originally set for 2026, were postponed two years to May 2028 amid the Israel-Hezbollah war and related security disruptions. This timeline, combined with the confessional proportional representation system requiring cross-sectarian alliances for majorities in the 128-seat chamber, contributes to the fragmented trader consensus across listed parties. Recent parliamentary sessions renewing confidence in Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s government highlighted persistent divisions, with Amal Movement backing the cabinet while Hezbollah withdrew from the vote. Post-war priorities such as reconstruction, extending state authority over weapons, and Israeli withdrawal negotiations further complicate bloc formations. The wide distribution of low probabilities reflects uncertainty over how shifting alliances, voter turnout in key districts, and external diplomatic pressures could consolidate or disperse seats among established groups like the Shiite alliance, Christian parties, and Druze-led lists.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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