**Traders assign a 91% probability that President Trump will not enact a statutory reduction in the U.S. corporate income tax rate before 2027.** The July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) made permanent most 2017 TCJA business provisions, added full expensing for equipment and R&D, expanded manufacturing incentives, and introduced targeted relief such as lower effective rates for domestic production activities, but left the headline federal corporate rate at 21%. Subsequent implementation guidance from Treasury and the IRS has focused on administering those changes rather than pursuing new rate legislation. With the 2026 midterms approaching and congressional attention shifting to implementation and other priorities, no further broad corporate rate legislation has advanced. Recent data showing sharply lower corporate tax receipts—down roughly 25% year-over-year amid expanded deductions and AI-related investment—further indicate that effective tax burdens have already declined through existing policy without requiring an additional statutory cut. Market pricing therefore reflects the absence of scheduled legislative vehicles or announced plans capable of delivering a headline rate reduction in the remaining timeframe.