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icon for Qui l'administrateur Trump nommera-t-il ensuite en tant que SCOTUS Justice ?

Qui l'administrateur Trump nommera-t-il ensuite en tant que SCOTUS Justice ?

icon for Qui l'administrateur Trump nommera-t-il ensuite en tant que SCOTUS Justice ?

Qui l'administrateur Trump nommera-t-il ensuite en tant que SCOTUS Justice ?

James Ho 19%

Andrew Oldham 13%

Gregory Katsas 11.2%

Steven Menashi 9.2%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

James Ho 19%

Andrew Oldham 13%

Gregory Katsas 11.2%

Steven Menashi 9.2%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

James Ho

$645 Vol.

19%

Andrew Oldham

$638 Vol.

13%

Gregory Katsas

$175 Vol.

11%

Steven Menashi

$105 Vol.

9%

Patrick Bumatay

$1,541 Vol.

9%

Neomi Rao

$109 Vol.

7%

Amul Thapar

$944 Vol.

7%

Aileen Cannon

$326 Vol.

6%

Mike Lee

$125 Vol.

6%

John Sauer

$121 Vol.

4%

Ted Cruz

$160 Vol.

14%

This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order. If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The absence of a confirmed Supreme Court vacancy continues to distribute implied probabilities across multiple Trump-appointed appellate judges and other conservative legal figures, reflecting broad trader uncertainty over timing and selection criteria. Recent speculation around possible retirements, including unconfirmed reports involving Justice Alito, has not produced a frontrunner, while Senate confirmation dynamics ahead of the November midterms add procedural caution. Candidates such as James Ho and Andrew Oldham benefit from Fifth Circuit records and clerkship ties, yet no administration signals have elevated any single name. Ted Cruz’s explicit rejection of interest and the emphasis on vetted Trump judges further fragment support. An actual retirement announcement or targeted White House endorsement within the resolution window could consolidate odds, while sustained focus on lower-court confirmations keeps the field competitive.

This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET.

Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.

If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order. If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,888
Date de fin
19 janv. 2029
Marché ouvert
Jun 24, 2026, 6:18 PM ET

Résolveur

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order. If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The absence of a confirmed Supreme Court vacancy continues to distribute implied probabilities across multiple Trump-appointed appellate judges and other conservative legal figures, reflecting broad trader uncertainty over timing and selection criteria. Recent speculation around possible retirements, including unconfirmed reports involving Justice Alito, has not produced a frontrunner, while Senate confirmation dynamics ahead of the November midterms add procedural caution. Candidates such as James Ho and Andrew Oldham benefit from Fifth Circuit records and clerkship ties, yet no administration signals have elevated any single name. Ted Cruz’s explicit rejection of interest and the emphasis on vetted Trump judges further fragment support. An actual retirement announcement or targeted White House endorsement within the resolution window could consolidate odds, while sustained focus on lower-court confirmations keeps the field competitive.

This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET.

Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.

If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order. If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,888
Date de fin
19 janv. 2029
Marché ouvert
Jun 24, 2026, 6:18 PM ET

Résolveur

0x69c47De9D...

Connexes

icon for Lula annoncera-t-il la nomination d'une personne au poste de ministre de la Cour suprême fédérale du Brésil d'ici le 31 décembre ?

Lula annoncera-t-il la nomination d'une personne au poste de ministre de la Cour suprême fédérale du Brésil d'ici le 31 décembre ?

65%
Oui
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6%
Oui
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La Cour suprême accepte-t-elle une affaire de contrat d'événement sportif d'ici le 31 décembre 2026 ?

34%
Oui

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Questions fréquentes

« Qui l'administrateur Trump nommera-t-il ensuite en tant que SCOTUS Justice ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 11 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « James Ho » à 19%, suivi de « Ted Cruz » à 14%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 19¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 19% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Qui l'administrateur Trump nommera-t-il ensuite en tant que SCOTUS Justice ? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Jun 24, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Qui l'administrateur Trump nommera-t-il ensuite en tant que SCOTUS Justice ? », parcourez les 11 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Qui l'administrateur Trump nommera-t-il ensuite en tant que SCOTUS Justice ? » est « James Ho » à 19%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 19% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Ted Cruz » à 14%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Qui l'administrateur Trump nommera-t-il ensuite en tant que SCOTUS Justice ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.