Recent results at the 2026 US Open have reshaped expectations for the singles finals, with Ben Shelton's record-late quarterfinal upset of defending champion Carlos Alcaraz and Frances Tiafoe's comeback victory over Alex Michelsen creating an all-American semifinal that guarantees at least one U.S. player in the men's final. This marks a notable shift from recent years dominated by European contenders. On the women's side, top seeds Aryna Sabalenka, Jessica Pegula, Elena Rybakina, and Coco Gauff advanced through quarterfinals, setting up high-stakes semifinals on September 10 that could determine a rematch or new matchup in the championship. Schedule rest, surface familiarity on hard courts, and head-to-head history among the remaining players now factor heavily into assessments of final attendance probabilities.