Olivia Rodrigo’s “the cure” holds a clear edge in the Best Alternative race thanks to its strong chart performance on Billboard’s Hot Rock & Alternative Songs, critical praise for its introspective rock leanings, and Rodrigo’s established fanbase that crosses into alternative territory. The field remains competitive, with Noah Kahan’s folk-tinged “The Great Divide,” Twenty One Pilots’ “Drag Path,” Tame Impala’s “Dracula,” and Geese’s “Taxes” each drawing distinct voter blocs among alt, indie, and rock-leaning audiences. Fan voting, which closes September 25 ahead of the September 27 ceremony, will likely amplify momentum from recent streaming data and video reception rather than traditional industry precursors. Traders see Rodrigo’s commercial visibility as the decisive factor in a category without a dominant historical frontrunner pattern.