Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. federal custody at a Brooklyn detention center following his January 2026 capture by American forces during a raid in Caracas on narco-terrorism and cocaine trafficking charges. Traders assign low probability to near-term release because the June 2027 trial date, pending defense motions asserting head-of-state immunity, and the case's procedural timeline create significant barriers. Recent developments include Maduro's public photos from detention and his wife's September 2026 request for house arrest on medical grounds, which does not directly affect his status. Broader context involves ongoing U.S.-Venezuela diplomatic and energy talks under interim leadership in Caracas, though no confirmed developments have altered custody conditions. Upcoming court arguments on jurisdiction in November 2026 represent the next potential catalyst.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$2,689,498 Vol.
30 janv. 2026
31 décembre
7%
$2,689,498 Vol.
31 décembre
$294,049 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. federal custody at a Brooklyn detention center following his January 2026 capture by American forces during a raid in Caracas on narco-terrorism and cocaine trafficking charges. Traders assign low probability to near-term release because the June 2027 trial date, pending defense motions asserting head-of-state immunity, and the case's procedural timeline create significant barriers. Recent developments include Maduro's public photos from detention and his wife's September 2026 request for house arrest on medical grounds, which does not directly affect his status. Broader context involves ongoing U.S.-Venezuela diplomatic and energy talks under interim leadership in Caracas, though no confirmed developments have altered custody conditions. Upcoming court arguments on jurisdiction in November 2026 represent the next potential catalyst.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ET
Volume
$2,689,498Date de fin
31 janv. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. federal custody at a Brooklyn detention center following his January 2026 capture by American forces during a raid in Caracas on narco-terrorism and cocaine trafficking charges. Traders assign low probability to near-term release because the June 2027 trial date, pending defense motions asserting head-of-state immunity, and the case's procedural timeline create significant barriers. Recent developments include Maduro's public photos from detention and his wife's September 2026 request for house arrest on medical grounds, which does not directly affect his status. Broader context involves ongoing U.S.-Venezuela diplomatic and energy talks under interim leadership in Caracas, though no confirmed developments have altered custody conditions. Upcoming court arguments on jurisdiction in November 2026 represent the next potential catalyst.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,689,498Date de fin
31 janv. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. federal custody at a Brooklyn detention center following his January 2026 capture by American forces during a raid in Caracas on narco-terrorism and cocaine trafficking charges. Traders assign low probability to near-term release because the June 2027 trial date, pending defense motions asserting head-of-state immunity, and the case's procedural timeline create significant barriers. Recent developments include Maduro's public photos from detention and his wife's September 2026 request for house arrest on medical grounds, which does not directly affect his status. Broader context involves ongoing U.S.-Venezuela diplomatic and energy talks under interim leadership in Caracas, though no confirmed developments have altered custody conditions. Upcoming court arguments on jurisdiction in November 2026 represent the next potential catalyst.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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