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icon for Leopold Aschenbrenner inculpé par... ?

Leopold Aschenbrenner inculpé par... ?

icon for Leopold Aschenbrenner inculpé par... ?

Leopold Aschenbrenner inculpé par... ?

$10,292 Vol.

31 déc. 2026
Polymarket

$10,292 Vol.

Polymarket

31 décembre 2026

$6,535 Vol.

7%

June 30, 2027

$1,598 Vol.

7%

December 31, 2027

$2,159 Vol.

29%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Leopold Aschenbrenner between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Leopold Aschenbrenner between market creation and June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Leopold Aschenbrenner between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Leopold Aschenbrenner, the former OpenAI researcher and founder of the AI-focused hedge fund Situational Awareness, faces low odds of criminal charges through the end of 2026.** His fund grew rapidly on leveraged bets in AI infrastructure stocks before suffering a sharp July 2026 meltdown, with assets dropping from a peak near $45 billion amid margin calls and a large portfolio sale to Citadel. Federal regulators have examined the trading activity, yet reporting as of late August shows no formal investigations, indictments, or charges by any U.S. jurisdiction. Aschenbrenner’s 2024 departure from OpenAI stemmed from an employment dispute over information sharing rather than criminal allegations, and his past ties to FTX have not produced new enforcement actions. Upcoming catalysts remain limited, with the market reflecting the absence of developments that typically precede indictments.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Leopold Aschenbrenner between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Leopold Aschenbrenner between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$10,292
Date de fin
1 janv. 2028
Marché ouvert
Jul 30, 2026, 3:59 PM ET

Résolveur

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Leopold Aschenbrenner between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Leopold Aschenbrenner between market creation and June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Leopold Aschenbrenner between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Leopold Aschenbrenner, the former OpenAI researcher and founder of the AI-focused hedge fund Situational Awareness, faces low odds of criminal charges through the end of 2026.** His fund grew rapidly on leveraged bets in AI infrastructure stocks before suffering a sharp July 2026 meltdown, with assets dropping from a peak near $45 billion amid margin calls and a large portfolio sale to Citadel. Federal regulators have examined the trading activity, yet reporting as of late August shows no formal investigations, indictments, or charges by any U.S. jurisdiction. Aschenbrenner’s 2024 departure from OpenAI stemmed from an employment dispute over information sharing rather than criminal allegations, and his past ties to FTX have not produced new enforcement actions. Upcoming catalysts remain limited, with the market reflecting the absence of developments that typically precede indictments.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Leopold Aschenbrenner between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Leopold Aschenbrenner between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$10,292
Date de fin
1 janv. 2028
Marché ouvert
Jul 30, 2026, 3:59 PM ET

Résolveur

0x65070BE91...

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Questions fréquentes

« Leopold Aschenbrenner inculpé par... ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 3 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « December 31, 2027 » à 28%, suivi de « 31 décembre 2026 » à 7%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 28¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 28% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Leopold Aschenbrenner inculpé par... ? » a généré $10.3K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Jul 30, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Leopold Aschenbrenner inculpé par... ? », parcourez les 3 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Leopold Aschenbrenner inculpé par... ? » est « December 31, 2027 » à 28%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 28% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 31 décembre 2026 » à 7%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Leopold Aschenbrenner inculpé par... ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.