**Lai Ching-te’s potential US visits or transits remain constrained by diplomatic sensitivities in US-China-Taiwan relations.** As of early October 2026, Lai completed a Hawaii stopover during his Pacific allies tour—the first such presidential transit through a US state under the current Trump administration—receiving official welcomes but framed as a brief en route pause rather than a dedicated bilateral engagement. Previous plans for continental US stopovers, including New York in 2025 en route to Latin American diplomatic partners, were reportedly discouraged to avoid provoking Beijing amid trade talks and summits. US policy on arms sales and unofficial ties has stayed consistent post-Trump-Xi meetings, with continued deliveries of approved systems like F-16Vs, yet high-profile presidential movements require careful coordination. Former President Tsai’s concurrent US academic visit highlights lower barriers for non-incumbents. Key near-term catalysts include any announced Pacific or Latin American itineraries, Senate or executive signals on transit approvals, and Beijing’s responses, all of which influence trader assessments of timing and feasibility under prevailing geopolitical constraints.