The ongoing judicial investigation into José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero for alleged influence peddling and related offenses in the Plus Ultra airline bailout case remains in the preliminary instruction phase at Spain’s National High Court, with no trial opened, no conviction secured, and no custodial sentence imposed as of September 2026. Zapatero has testified as an investigated party, denied all wrongdoing, and seen requests for passport seizure or pretrial detention rejected by the judge, who cited insufficient flight risk despite maintaining the charges. Spanish criminal procedures for such matters typically involve extended evidentiary review, appeals, and high evidentiary thresholds before any prison term becomes possible, supporting traders’ strong consensus against near-term resolution in the affirmative. Late developments such as new witness testimony, additional charges from separate probes, or a rapid shift to oral proceedings could still alter timelines, though structural barriers to swift conviction persist.