President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act amid protests against federal immigration enforcement operations, particularly in Minneapolis, yet no formal invocation has occurred. Recent developments include a federal appeals court ruling that prior National Guard deployments in Los Angeles exceeded statutory authority under alternative provisions, and Democratic senators questioning the legal basis for new nationwide Guard quick-reaction forces created by executive order, with specific concerns over election-period use ahead of the November 3 midterms. Traders price a low probability of invocation by year-end because administrations have relied on other authorities like 10 U.S.C. § 12406 for domestic deployments, face litigation risks, and historical use remains rare, with the last instance in 1992. Upcoming midterm voting and any associated unrest represent key near-term variables that could shift the implied probability reflected in current pricing.