A May 2026 static-fire explosion at Cape Canaveral’s LC-36 destroyed a New Glenn vehicle and heavily damaged Blue Origin’s sole operational launch pad, with repairs projected to exceed a year based on industry assessments. This incident, following an April upper-stage anomaly on the third flight that grounded the rocket, has shifted focus to extensive reconstruction and alternative second-stage testing at NASA Stennis, leaving insufficient time for pad certification, vehicle integration, and regulatory approvals before year-end. While CEO Dave Limp has reiterated a late-2026 return-to-flight target amid ongoing rebuilding, the compressed timeline, single-pad constraint, and historical precedent for such damage make trader consensus heavily favor no launch in 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
15% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
Oui
15% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.A May 2026 static-fire explosion at Cape Canaveral’s LC-36 destroyed a New Glenn vehicle and heavily damaged Blue Origin’s sole operational launch pad, with repairs projected to exceed a year based on industry assessments. This incident, following an April upper-stage anomaly on the third flight that grounded the rocket, has shifted focus to extensive reconstruction and alternative second-stage testing at NASA Stennis, leaving insufficient time for pad certification, vehicle integration, and regulatory approvals before year-end. While CEO Dave Limp has reiterated a late-2026 return-to-flight target amid ongoing rebuilding, the compressed timeline, single-pad constraint, and historical precedent for such damage make trader consensus heavily favor no launch in 2026.
If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
Marché ouvert : Jun 1, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Volume
$1,448Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jun 1, 2026, 1:11 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.A May 2026 static-fire explosion at Cape Canaveral’s LC-36 destroyed a New Glenn vehicle and heavily damaged Blue Origin’s sole operational launch pad, with repairs projected to exceed a year based on industry assessments. This incident, following an April upper-stage anomaly on the third flight that grounded the rocket, has shifted focus to extensive reconstruction and alternative second-stage testing at NASA Stennis, leaving insufficient time for pad certification, vehicle integration, and regulatory approvals before year-end. While CEO Dave Limp has reiterated a late-2026 return-to-flight target amid ongoing rebuilding, the compressed timeline, single-pad constraint, and historical precedent for such damage make trader consensus heavily favor no launch in 2026.
If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
Volume
$1,448Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jun 1, 2026, 1:11 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...A May 2026 static-fire explosion at Cape Canaveral’s LC-36 destroyed a New Glenn vehicle and heavily damaged Blue Origin’s sole operational launch pad, with repairs projected to exceed a year based on industry assessments. This incident, following an April upper-stage anomaly on the third flight that grounded the rocket, has shifted focus to extensive reconstruction and alternative second-stage testing at NASA Stennis, leaving insufficient time for pad certification, vehicle integration, and regulatory approvals before year-end. While CEO Dave Limp has reiterated a late-2026 return-to-flight target amid ongoing rebuilding, the compressed timeline, single-pad constraint, and historical precedent for such damage make trader consensus heavily favor no launch in 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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