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Politics·Kamala

Will the next elected US president be a woman?

icon for Will the next elected US president be a woman?
Politics·Kamala

Will the next elected US president be a woman?

15% chance
Polymarket

$13,838 Vol.

15% chance
Polymarket

$13,838 Vol.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution sources for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Early positioning for the 2028 presidential race centers on male frontrunners, with Vice President JD Vance leading Republican primary polling averages near 40 percent and prediction markets, ahead of figures such as Marco Rubio. On the Democratic side, national surveys show Kamala Harris ahead in some head-to-head tests, yet prediction markets favor male contenders including Gavin Newsom, Jon Ossoff, and Pete Buttigieg alongside Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. A July 2026 Pew survey found 37 percent of Americans now view electing a woman president in their lifetime as unlikely, up from 26 percent in 2023, amid assessments of general-election viability following consecutive cycles with female nominees. These patterns underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the 72.5 percent price on No. Midterm outcomes and formal candidate entries could alter the field ahead of the November 2028 vote.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution sources for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution sources for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$13,838
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Feb 17, 2026, 5:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution sources for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Early positioning for the 2028 presidential race centers on male frontrunners, with Vice President JD Vance leading Republican primary polling averages near 40 percent and prediction markets, ahead of figures such as Marco Rubio. On the Democratic side, national surveys show Kamala Harris ahead in some head-to-head tests, yet prediction markets favor male contenders including Gavin Newsom, Jon Ossoff, and Pete Buttigieg alongside Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. A July 2026 Pew survey found 37 percent of Americans now view electing a woman president in their lifetime as unlikely, up from 26 percent in 2023, amid assessments of general-election viability following consecutive cycles with female nominees. These patterns underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the 72.5 percent price on No. Midterm outcomes and formal candidate entries could alter the field ahead of the November 2028 vote.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution sources for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution sources for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$13,838
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Feb 17, 2026, 5:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will the next elected US president be a woman?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 27% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 27¢, the market collectively assigns a 27% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will the next elected US president be a woman?" has generated $13.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will the next elected US president be a woman?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will the next elected US president be a woman?" is 27% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 27% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will the next elected US president be a woman?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.