Elevated crude oil prices, driven by persistent volatility in the Strait of Hormuz and Middle East supply risks amid Iran-related tensions, remain the dominant factor supporting U.S. retail gasoline averages near $4.49 per gallon as of September 25, 2026. Low global inventories, constrained refining capacity, and elevated crack spreads have kept pump prices at seasonal records despite record U.S. production. State-level data show the lowest regular averages in Indiana and Texas near $3.94–$3.96, well above the $3.75 threshold, with limited near-term downside absent a swift de-escalation or major inventory build. Weekly EIA gasoline and crude stock reports, along with any diplomatic updates on Hormuz traffic, represent the key near-term catalysts that could shift trader-implied probabilities on state-level price floors.