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icon for Who will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?

Who will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?

icon for Who will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?

Who will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?

James Ho 19%

Andrew Oldham 13%

Gregory Katsas 10.5%

Steven Menashi 9.2%

Polymarket
NEW

James Ho 19%

Andrew Oldham 13%

Gregory Katsas 10.5%

Steven Menashi 9.2%

Polymarket
NEW

James Ho

$645 Vol.

19%

Andrew Oldham

$638 Vol.

13%

Gregory Katsas

$175 Vol.

11%

Steven Menashi

$105 Vol.

9%

Patrick Bumatay

$1,541 Vol.

9%

Amul Thapar

$944 Vol.

8%

Neomi Rao

$109 Vol.

7%

Mike Lee

$125 Vol.

6%

Aileen Cannon

$326 Vol.

6%

John Sauer

$121 Vol.

4%

Ted Cruz

$160 Vol.

18%

This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order. If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. No current Supreme Court vacancy exists, keeping trader consensus fragmented across a wide field of conservative appeals court judges. Justice Samuel Alito’s August 2026 statement that he intends to serve another term cooled near-term retirement speculation involving him or Clarence Thomas, while Ted Cruz’s public rejection of any nomination further dispersed odds. Senate Republicans’ slim majority ahead of the November 2026 midterms adds confirmation risk, favoring younger, well-vetted Trump appointees with feeder-clerk pedigrees such as James Ho, Gregory Katsas, Andrew Oldham, and Amul Thapar. Market prices reflect this uncertainty, as any single vacancy announcement or post-midterm Senate shift could rapidly consolidate support behind one contender.

This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET.

Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.

If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order. If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,888
End Date
Jan 19, 2029
Market Opened
Jun 24, 2026, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order. If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. No current Supreme Court vacancy exists, keeping trader consensus fragmented across a wide field of conservative appeals court judges. Justice Samuel Alito’s August 2026 statement that he intends to serve another term cooled near-term retirement speculation involving him or Clarence Thomas, while Ted Cruz’s public rejection of any nomination further dispersed odds. Senate Republicans’ slim majority ahead of the November 2026 midterms adds confirmation risk, favoring younger, well-vetted Trump appointees with feeder-clerk pedigrees such as James Ho, Gregory Katsas, Andrew Oldham, and Amul Thapar. Market prices reflect this uncertainty, as any single vacancy announcement or post-midterm Senate shift could rapidly consolidate support behind one contender.

This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET.

Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.

If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order. If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,888
End Date
Jan 19, 2029
Market Opened
Jun 24, 2026, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "James Ho" at 19%, followed by "Ted Cruz" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 19¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 19% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Who will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jun 24, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Who will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?" is "James Ho" at 19%, meaning the market assigns a 19% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Ted Cruz" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.