**Sweden’s centre-left bloc secured a narrow 176-173 parliamentary majority in the September 13, 2026 general election, yet remains deadlocked over government formation due to disagreements between the Centre Party and Left Party on coalition participation.** Parliament rejected Magdalena Andersson’s bid for prime minister on October 15 in the first of up to four constitutional votes. Under the Instrument of Government, four failed attempts automatically trigger an extraordinary election. The speaker continues informal talks and will outline next steps on October 19, with Ulf Kristersson expected to receive the next exploratory mandate. Parties face strong incentives to compromise: a snap election would cost over SEK 630 million, repeat the uncertainty of the 134-day 2018 process, and carry political risks for all sides. Recent reporting shows no active push toward dissolution, only mounting pressure from the vote sequence itself to reach an agreement. Traders therefore assign an 84% probability to no snap election this year, viewing the four-vote mechanism as leverage for resolution rather than an immediate trigger for new polls.