**Morena holds a commanding lead in the Oaxaca Congress election market at 78.5% implied probability, reflecting its entrenched dominance in the state legislature and strong alignment with the sitting state government.** Current data shows Morena and its allies (PT and PVEM) already controlling roughly 80% of seats in the LXVI Legislature following the 2024 elections, with ongoing coalition dynamics reinforcing this position ahead of the 2027 renewal. Recent surveys for related 2028 statewide races indicate Morena capturing around 47% voter preference, far ahead of PRI, PAN, and other opposition parties, which register single-digit or lower support. Opposition groups such as PRI (7%), PVEM (4.7%), PAN (1.1%), and smaller parties face structural barriers including limited recent electoral success and weaker organizational reach in Oaxaca's districts. No major shifts have emerged in the past 30 days to alter this outlook, though legislative activity on constitutional reforms and local security measures continues under the current Morena-led majority. The next Congress election uses a mixed system of single-member districts and proportional representation, favoring parties with broad geographic strength like Morena.