Incumbent John Mannion holds a commanding position in the New York 22nd congressional district race, backed by the district’s D+4 Cook Partisan Voting Index and strong performance in the 2024 cycle that produced a roughly nine-point margin. Both candidates advanced unopposed through the June 23 primaries, leaving Mannion with a clear path as the sitting representative. His campaign has built a substantial fundraising lead, exceeding $2.9 million raised with nearly $1.8 million cash on hand compared with Kailee Buller’s roughly $267,000 raised. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited national Republican investment. Buller would require an unusually large shift in voter turnout or late-cycle developments to close the gap before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$22,266 Vol.
$22,266 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
John Mannion (D)
93%
Kailee Buller (R)
6%
$22,266 Vol.
$22,266 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
John Mannion (D)
$10,907 Vol.
93%
Kailee Buller (R)
$11,358 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent John Mannion holds a commanding position in the New York 22nd congressional district race, backed by the district’s D+4 Cook Partisan Voting Index and strong performance in the 2024 cycle that produced a roughly nine-point margin. Both candidates advanced unopposed through the June 23 primaries, leaving Mannion with a clear path as the sitting representative. His campaign has built a substantial fundraising lead, exceeding $2.9 million raised with nearly $1.8 million cash on hand compared with Kailee Buller’s roughly $267,000 raised. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited national Republican investment. Buller would require an unusually large shift in voter turnout or late-cycle developments to close the gap before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET
Volume
$22,266End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent John Mannion holds a commanding position in the New York 22nd congressional district race, backed by the district’s D+4 Cook Partisan Voting Index and strong performance in the 2024 cycle that produced a roughly nine-point margin. Both candidates advanced unopposed through the June 23 primaries, leaving Mannion with a clear path as the sitting representative. His campaign has built a substantial fundraising lead, exceeding $2.9 million raised with nearly $1.8 million cash on hand compared with Kailee Buller’s roughly $267,000 raised. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited national Republican investment. Buller would require an unusually large shift in voter turnout or late-cycle developments to close the gap before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$22,266End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent John Mannion holds a commanding position in the New York 22nd congressional district race, backed by the district’s D+4 Cook Partisan Voting Index and strong performance in the 2024 cycle that produced a roughly nine-point margin. Both candidates advanced unopposed through the June 23 primaries, leaving Mannion with a clear path as the sitting representative. His campaign has built a substantial fundraising lead, exceeding $2.9 million raised with nearly $1.8 million cash on hand compared with Kailee Buller’s roughly $267,000 raised. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited national Republican investment. Buller would require an unusually large shift in voter turnout or late-cycle developments to close the gap before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions