Kurt Alme secured the Republican nomination for Montana’s open U.S. Senate seat after incumbent Steve Daines withdrew late and endorsed him, with Trump’s backing helping consolidate party support in a state that has trended strongly Republican in federal contests. Recent polling through early September shows Alme holding a lead over independent Seth Bodnar and Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead, consistent with nonpartisan ratings classifying the race as safe or likely Republican. Bankhead’s primary win and subsequent fundraising shortfalls, along with a major Democratic-aligned group withdrawing support, have limited her viability, while Bodnar’s independent bid draws some cross-party endorsements but splits the opposition. The November 3 general election outcome could shift only in the event of a major late development such as a candidate withdrawal, significant scandal, or unusually high independent turnout consolidating behind Bodnar.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMontana Senate Election Winner
Montana Senate Election Winner
Kurt Alme (R) 91%
Independent 7.6%
Alani Bankhead (D) <1%
$118,322 Vol.
$118,322 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Kurt Alme (R)
91%
Independent
8%
Alani Bankhead (D)
1%
Kurt Alme (R) 91%
Independent 7.6%
Alani Bankhead (D) <1%
$118,322 Vol.
$118,322 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Kurt Alme (R)
$59,644 Vol.
91%
Independent
$18,015 Vol.
8%
Alani Bankhead (D)
$40,664 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Kurt Alme secured the Republican nomination for Montana’s open U.S. Senate seat after incumbent Steve Daines withdrew late and endorsed him, with Trump’s backing helping consolidate party support in a state that has trended strongly Republican in federal contests. Recent polling through early September shows Alme holding a lead over independent Seth Bodnar and Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead, consistent with nonpartisan ratings classifying the race as safe or likely Republican. Bankhead’s primary win and subsequent fundraising shortfalls, along with a major Democratic-aligned group withdrawing support, have limited her viability, while Bodnar’s independent bid draws some cross-party endorsements but splits the opposition. The November 3 general election outcome could shift only in the event of a major late development such as a candidate withdrawal, significant scandal, or unusually high independent turnout consolidating behind Bodnar.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Volume
$118,322End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Kurt Alme secured the Republican nomination for Montana’s open U.S. Senate seat after incumbent Steve Daines withdrew late and endorsed him, with Trump’s backing helping consolidate party support in a state that has trended strongly Republican in federal contests. Recent polling through early September shows Alme holding a lead over independent Seth Bodnar and Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead, consistent with nonpartisan ratings classifying the race as safe or likely Republican. Bankhead’s primary win and subsequent fundraising shortfalls, along with a major Democratic-aligned group withdrawing support, have limited her viability, while Bodnar’s independent bid draws some cross-party endorsements but splits the opposition. The November 3 general election outcome could shift only in the event of a major late development such as a candidate withdrawal, significant scandal, or unusually high independent turnout consolidating behind Bodnar.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$118,322End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Kurt Alme secured the Republican nomination for Montana’s open U.S. Senate seat after incumbent Steve Daines withdrew late and endorsed him, with Trump’s backing helping consolidate party support in a state that has trended strongly Republican in federal contests. Recent polling through early September shows Alme holding a lead over independent Seth Bodnar and Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead, consistent with nonpartisan ratings classifying the race as safe or likely Republican. Bankhead’s primary win and subsequent fundraising shortfalls, along with a major Democratic-aligned group withdrawing support, have limited her viability, while Bodnar’s independent bid draws some cross-party endorsements but splits the opposition. The November 3 general election outcome could shift only in the event of a major late development such as a candidate withdrawal, significant scandal, or unusually high independent turnout consolidating behind Bodnar.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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