Matthew Stafford enters the 2026 regular season at age 38 after an MVP campaign in which he threw a career-high 46 passing touchdowns for the Rams in 2025. He remains the clear starter under Sean McVay with an elite supporting cast featuring Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, plus a strong offensive line that helped produce league-leading efficiency last year. Health stands out as the primary variable, as Stafford has managed back issues in prior camps but participated fully this summer without reported limitations. Projections and analysts point to likely regression from his unsustainable 7.7% touchdown rate toward historical norms around 4-5%, though the Rams' pass-heavy scheme and Week 1 matchup against the 49ers in Australia set the stage for volume. Schedule strength and any late offensive line or receiver injuries could further shape his total.