**The 30-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 5.33%, has been lifted primarily by the Federal Reserve’s September 2026 decision to raise the federal funds target range to 3.75–4.00% and subsequent hawkish communications under Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing price stability.** Persistent inflation above the 2% target, resilient economic growth, and a strong labor market have kept market-implied odds tilted toward a higher policy path. Structural supply pressures from large federal deficits and heavy corporate issuance, especially for AI infrastructure, have also contributed to elevated term premia. With only a few months until year-end, upcoming releases including October CPI, employment data, and the late-October FOMC meeting represent key near-term catalysts that could influence whether yields test recent highs above 5.35% before 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$34,257 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
6.00%
2%
5.80%
6%
5.70%
11%
5.65%
13%
5.60%
28%
5.55%
42%
5.50%
56%
5.45%
74%
5.40%
82%
$34,257 Vol.
6.00%
$2,532 Vol.
2%
5.80%
$6,758 Vol.
6%
5.70%
$2,332 Vol.
11%
5.65%
$3,938 Vol.
13%
5.60%
$2,909 Vol.
28%
5.55%
$2,529 Vol.
42%
5.50%
$2,257 Vol.
56%
5.45%
$4,488 Vol.
74%
5.40%
$6,513 Vol.
82%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).**The 30-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 5.33%, has been lifted primarily by the Federal Reserve’s September 2026 decision to raise the federal funds target range to 3.75–4.00% and subsequent hawkish communications under Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing price stability.** Persistent inflation above the 2% target, resilient economic growth, and a strong labor market have kept market-implied odds tilted toward a higher policy path. Structural supply pressures from large federal deficits and heavy corporate issuance, especially for AI infrastructure, have also contributed to elevated term premia. With only a few months until year-end, upcoming releases including October CPI, employment data, and the late-October FOMC meeting represent key near-term catalysts that could influence whether yields test recent highs above 5.35% before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Volume
$34,257End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).**The 30-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 5.33%, has been lifted primarily by the Federal Reserve’s September 2026 decision to raise the federal funds target range to 3.75–4.00% and subsequent hawkish communications under Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing price stability.** Persistent inflation above the 2% target, resilient economic growth, and a strong labor market have kept market-implied odds tilted toward a higher policy path. Structural supply pressures from large federal deficits and heavy corporate issuance, especially for AI infrastructure, have also contributed to elevated term premia. With only a few months until year-end, upcoming releases including October CPI, employment data, and the late-October FOMC meeting represent key near-term catalysts that could influence whether yields test recent highs above 5.35% before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$34,257End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**The 30-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 5.33%, has been lifted primarily by the Federal Reserve’s September 2026 decision to raise the federal funds target range to 3.75–4.00% and subsequent hawkish communications under Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing price stability.** Persistent inflation above the 2% target, resilient economic growth, and a strong labor market have kept market-implied odds tilted toward a higher policy path. Structural supply pressures from large federal deficits and heavy corporate issuance, especially for AI infrastructure, have also contributed to elevated term premia. With only a few months until year-end, upcoming releases including October CPI, employment data, and the late-October FOMC meeting represent key near-term catalysts that could influence whether yields test recent highs above 5.35% before 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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