The May 28, 2026, integrated hotfire anomaly at Cape Canaveral’s Launch Complex 36, which destroyed the transporter-erector, lightning tower, and other critical ground systems while damaging the sole active New Glenn pad, remains the dominant factor behind the 86% market-implied probability against a 2026 launch. Blue Origin’s investigation traced the issue to a main oxygen valve on a BE-4 engine, and while CEO Dave Limp has outlined an accelerated horizontal/vertical hybrid CONOPS using cranes and existing infrastructure to bypass full pad reconstruction, the timeline is widely viewed as ambitious given the scale of repairs, untested procedures, and limited remaining months in the year. Ongoing second-stage testing at NASA Stennis and dual-pad development add longer-term support but do not alter near-term constraints for traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated15% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
15% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.The May 28, 2026, integrated hotfire anomaly at Cape Canaveral’s Launch Complex 36, which destroyed the transporter-erector, lightning tower, and other critical ground systems while damaging the sole active New Glenn pad, remains the dominant factor behind the 86% market-implied probability against a 2026 launch. Blue Origin’s investigation traced the issue to a main oxygen valve on a BE-4 engine, and while CEO Dave Limp has outlined an accelerated horizontal/vertical hybrid CONOPS using cranes and existing infrastructure to bypass full pad reconstruction, the timeline is widely viewed as ambitious given the scale of repairs, untested procedures, and limited remaining months in the year. Ongoing second-stage testing at NASA Stennis and dual-pad development add longer-term support but do not alter near-term constraints for traders.
If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
Market Opened: Jun 1, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Volume
$1,448End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 1, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.The May 28, 2026, integrated hotfire anomaly at Cape Canaveral’s Launch Complex 36, which destroyed the transporter-erector, lightning tower, and other critical ground systems while damaging the sole active New Glenn pad, remains the dominant factor behind the 86% market-implied probability against a 2026 launch. Blue Origin’s investigation traced the issue to a main oxygen valve on a BE-4 engine, and while CEO Dave Limp has outlined an accelerated horizontal/vertical hybrid CONOPS using cranes and existing infrastructure to bypass full pad reconstruction, the timeline is widely viewed as ambitious given the scale of repairs, untested procedures, and limited remaining months in the year. Ongoing second-stage testing at NASA Stennis and dual-pad development add longer-term support but do not alter near-term constraints for traders.
If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
Volume
$1,448End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 1, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The May 28, 2026, integrated hotfire anomaly at Cape Canaveral’s Launch Complex 36, which destroyed the transporter-erector, lightning tower, and other critical ground systems while damaging the sole active New Glenn pad, remains the dominant factor behind the 86% market-implied probability against a 2026 launch. Blue Origin’s investigation traced the issue to a main oxygen valve on a BE-4 engine, and while CEO Dave Limp has outlined an accelerated horizontal/vertical hybrid CONOPS using cranes and existing infrastructure to bypass full pad reconstruction, the timeline is widely viewed as ambitious given the scale of repairs, untested procedures, and limited remaining months in the year. Ongoing second-stage testing at NASA Stennis and dual-pad development add longer-term support but do not alter near-term constraints for traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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