Recent outages and degraded performance in OpenAI’s Codex coding service have driven the 75.5% market-implied odds of another incident before year-end. Multiple disruptions occurred in late September and early October 2026, including a 56-minute full outage on September 25 affecting the web app, API, CLI, and VS Code extension, plus elevated errors spanning five hours on September 29 and Dot thread failures causing degraded responses on October 7. These events, tied to internal issues and high usage loads on the large language model-powered agent, have reinforced trader views of ongoing reliability challenges amid rapid scaling of AI coding workflows. Key upcoming catalysts include further product updates and potential load spikes through the remainder of 2026.