Messi’s advanced age—turning 40 during the 2027 campaign—combined with a history of workload management and contract uncertainty drives the 91.5% market-implied odds against him claiming the Golden Boot. Traders point to his strong 2026 form (tied atop the scoring charts with 18 goals) as likely unsustainable amid a possible shortened transition season, rumors of a brief Newell's Old Boys stint, or reduced minutes at Inter Miami through 2028. Younger contenders like Petar Musa, Evander, and others posting consistent tallies add pressure in a league favoring volume scorers. A healthy, fully committed Messi could still challenge if Miami prioritizes his minutes, though historical patterns favor younger attackers sustaining output over 30-plus matches.