Trader consensus in this multi-outcome market centers on high-profile figures facing congressional scrutiny, DOJ investigations, or enforcement actions tied to prior official roles or protests. John Brennan holds the highest implied probability near 30 percent amid ongoing intelligence-related probes, while Anthony Fauci, James Comey, and Mahmoud Khalil trade in the 9–25 percent range due to documented Senate appearances, prior detentions, and potential contempt or immigration proceedings. Broader factors include stepped-up ICE operations and federal fraud initiatives through mid-2026, alongside structural barriers such as statutes of limitations and evidentiary thresholds that keep most listed probabilities below 20 percent. Resolution requires a qualifying physical arrest or detention by December 31, 2026, with no major indictments of these individuals reported in recent months.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Quién será arrestado antes de 2027?
¿Quién será arrestado antes de 2027?
$412,533 Vol.
Anthony Fauci
10%
John Brennan
21%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
11%
Adam Schiff
2%
Barack Obama
2%
James Comey
8%
Mahmoud Khalil
21%
James Clapper
11%
Letitia James
9%
Hillary Clinton
2%
Bill Clinton
1%
Loretta Lynch
8%
Susan Rice
9%
Candace Owens
7%
Gavin Newsom
2%
Benjamin Netanyahu
5%
John Kerry
1%
Pam Bondi
2%
Tom Homan
5%
Kash Patel
1%
Brandon Johnson
11%
Lisa Cook
3%
Lee Jun-seok
11%
Joe Biden
1%
$412,533 Vol.
Anthony Fauci
$164,911 Vol.
10%
John Brennan
$22,332 Vol.
21%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
$23,455 Vol.
11%
Adam Schiff
$16,570 Vol.
2%
Barack Obama
$29,276 Vol.
2%
James Comey
$10,821 Vol.
8%
Mahmoud Khalil
$1,329 Vol.
21%
James Clapper
$7,264 Vol.
11%
Letitia James
$3,047 Vol.
9%
Hillary Clinton
$26,182 Vol.
2%
Bill Clinton
$2,726 Vol.
1%
Loretta Lynch
$2,411 Vol.
8%
Susan Rice
$304 Vol.
9%
Candace Owens
$268 Vol.
7%
Gavin Newsom
$39,425 Vol.
2%
Benjamin Netanyahu
$1,936 Vol.
5%
John Kerry
$503 Vol.
1%
Pam Bondi
$2,189 Vol.
2%
Tom Homan
$41,331 Vol.
5%
Kash Patel
$598 Vol.
1%
Brandon Johnson
$3,290 Vol.
11%
Lisa Cook
$4,005 Vol.
3%
Lee Jun-seok
$794 Vol.
11%
Joe Biden
$7,565 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus in this multi-outcome market centers on high-profile figures facing congressional scrutiny, DOJ investigations, or enforcement actions tied to prior official roles or protests. John Brennan holds the highest implied probability near 30 percent amid ongoing intelligence-related probes, while Anthony Fauci, James Comey, and Mahmoud Khalil trade in the 9–25 percent range due to documented Senate appearances, prior detentions, and potential contempt or immigration proceedings. Broader factors include stepped-up ICE operations and federal fraud initiatives through mid-2026, alongside structural barriers such as statutes of limitations and evidentiary thresholds that keep most listed probabilities below 20 percent. Resolution requires a qualifying physical arrest or detention by December 31, 2026, with no major indictments of these individuals reported in recent months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Volumen
$412,533Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus in this multi-outcome market centers on high-profile figures facing congressional scrutiny, DOJ investigations, or enforcement actions tied to prior official roles or protests. John Brennan holds the highest implied probability near 30 percent amid ongoing intelligence-related probes, while Anthony Fauci, James Comey, and Mahmoud Khalil trade in the 9–25 percent range due to documented Senate appearances, prior detentions, and potential contempt or immigration proceedings. Broader factors include stepped-up ICE operations and federal fraud initiatives through mid-2026, alongside structural barriers such as statutes of limitations and evidentiary thresholds that keep most listed probabilities below 20 percent. Resolution requires a qualifying physical arrest or detention by December 31, 2026, with no major indictments of these individuals reported in recent months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$412,533Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus in this multi-outcome market centers on high-profile figures facing congressional scrutiny, DOJ investigations, or enforcement actions tied to prior official roles or protests. John Brennan holds the highest implied probability near 30 percent amid ongoing intelligence-related probes, while Anthony Fauci, James Comey, and Mahmoud Khalil trade in the 9–25 percent range due to documented Senate appearances, prior detentions, and potential contempt or immigration proceedings. Broader factors include stepped-up ICE operations and federal fraud initiatives through mid-2026, alongside structural barriers such as statutes of limitations and evidentiary thresholds that keep most listed probabilities below 20 percent. Resolution requires a qualifying physical arrest or detention by December 31, 2026, with no major indictments of these individuals reported in recent months.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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