**Coalition polling leads have positioned the Liberal–National parties as the clear favorite to win the November 28 Victorian state election.** Multiple August surveys, including Resolve, DemosAU, Roy Morgan, Freshwater and RedBridge, show the Coalition on 27–32% primary vote ahead of Labor on 23–26% and One Nation on 22–23%, translating to a 52–55% two-party-preferred edge over Labor. The July leadership change from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll produced only modest Labor gains and left the Coalition ahead on preferred premier. Voter concerns over crime, state debt and cost-of-living issues have sustained the swing against the long-serving Labor government. One Nation’s primary support has lifted but its preferences are projected to flow heavily to the Coalition, reinforcing the market’s 74.5% implied probability for a Liberal–National victory.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones parlamentarias de Victoria
Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias de Victoria
Liberal–National 75%
Labor 20%
One Nation 5.3%
Greens <1%
$13,659 Vol.
$13,659 Vol.
28 nov 2026
Liberal–National
75%
Labor
20%
One Nation
5%
Greens
<1%
Liberal–National 75%
Labor 20%
One Nation 5.3%
Greens <1%
$13,659 Vol.
$13,659 Vol.
28 nov 2026
Liberal–National
$6,937 Vol.
75%
Labor
$3,175 Vol.
20%
One Nation
$2,938 Vol.
5%
Greens
$611 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).**Coalition polling leads have positioned the Liberal–National parties as the clear favorite to win the November 28 Victorian state election.** Multiple August surveys, including Resolve, DemosAU, Roy Morgan, Freshwater and RedBridge, show the Coalition on 27–32% primary vote ahead of Labor on 23–26% and One Nation on 22–23%, translating to a 52–55% two-party-preferred edge over Labor. The July leadership change from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll produced only modest Labor gains and left the Coalition ahead on preferred premier. Voter concerns over crime, state debt and cost-of-living issues have sustained the swing against the long-serving Labor government. One Nation’s primary support has lifted but its preferences are projected to flow heavily to the Coalition, reinforcing the market’s 74.5% implied probability for a Liberal–National victory.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Mercado abierto: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
Volumen
$13,659Fecha de finalización
28 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).**Coalition polling leads have positioned the Liberal–National parties as the clear favorite to win the November 28 Victorian state election.** Multiple August surveys, including Resolve, DemosAU, Roy Morgan, Freshwater and RedBridge, show the Coalition on 27–32% primary vote ahead of Labor on 23–26% and One Nation on 22–23%, translating to a 52–55% two-party-preferred edge over Labor. The July leadership change from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll produced only modest Labor gains and left the Coalition ahead on preferred premier. Voter concerns over crime, state debt and cost-of-living issues have sustained the swing against the long-serving Labor government. One Nation’s primary support has lifted but its preferences are projected to flow heavily to the Coalition, reinforcing the market’s 74.5% implied probability for a Liberal–National victory.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Volumen
$13,659Fecha de finalización
28 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Coalition polling leads have positioned the Liberal–National parties as the clear favorite to win the November 28 Victorian state election.** Multiple August surveys, including Resolve, DemosAU, Roy Morgan, Freshwater and RedBridge, show the Coalition on 27–32% primary vote ahead of Labor on 23–26% and One Nation on 22–23%, translating to a 52–55% two-party-preferred edge over Labor. The July leadership change from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll produced only modest Labor gains and left the Coalition ahead on preferred premier. Voter concerns over crime, state debt and cost-of-living issues have sustained the swing against the long-serving Labor government. One Nation’s primary support has lifted but its preferences are projected to flow heavily to the Coalition, reinforcing the market’s 74.5% implied probability for a Liberal–National victory.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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