Morena holds the leading position in trader consensus for the Sonora state congress outcome, reflecting its current majority in the LXIV legislature and alignment with the state governorship under Alfonso Durazo. This positioning stems from the party's established district-level strength across Sonora's 21 majority-relative seats and proportional representation allocations, alongside limited recent shifts in opposition coalitions such as Va por Sonora. Low probabilities assigned to PAN, PRI, PT, PVEM, and MC align with their smaller current caucuses and historical performance in state legislative contests. With the next full election scheduled for 2027, near-term developments like candidate nominations, coalition negotiations, or national midterm dynamics could influence assessments, though structural incumbency advantages continue to anchor the implied probabilities.