Josh Allen’s early 2026 pace—four rushing touchdowns through the first two weeks—has created the primary market tension around breaking LaDainian Tomlinson’s 28-touchdown single-season record. While elite running backs such as Jahmyr Gibbs, Derrick Henry, and Jonathan Taylor have posted 16–18 rushing scores in recent campaigns and face typical workload and defensive constraints, Allen’s dual-threat usage in Buffalo’s offense has produced historic quarterback rushing production. Sustaining that volume over a full 17-game schedule remains uncommon due to injury risk, defensive adjustments, and shifting play-calling priorities. Continued goal-line work for Allen or an outlier campaign from a featured back could shift implied probabilities toward Yes, whereas typical regression or roster changes would reinforce the current narrow edge for No.