Maduro’s capture by U.S. forces in January 2026 and subsequent federal custody in New York underpin the current trader consensus, with “No prison time” at 58 percent reflecting ongoing legal challenges such as immunity arguments and the extended timeline to a June 2027 trial. The added October torture conspiracy charges, alongside existing narco-terrorism and drug counts that carry mandatory minimum sentences of 50 years or more if convicted on all counts, support the 24 percent on “60+” by highlighting exposure to lengthy terms under U.S. sentencing guidelines. Recent proceedings, including not guilty pleas and bail denials, have underscored procedural uncertainties without resolving core questions of prosecution viability or potential diplomatic or health-related developments that could alter outcomes before resolution.