Canada’s population has declined for multiple consecutive quarters through mid-2026, driven by the federal government’s 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan, which caps new temporary resident arrivals at 385,000 while stabilizing permanent resident admissions near 380,000. This policy aims to reduce the non-permanent resident share below 5% of the total population by the end of 2027, producing net outflows that offset natural increase and permanent inflows. Statistics Canada data through April 2026 confirm quarterly contractions of 0.1–0.2%, with temporary resident numbers falling sharply after peaking in 2024. Parliamentary Budget Office projections indicate flat or slightly negative growth for the full year, consistent with ongoing caps on study and work permits and tighter financial requirements implemented in 2026. Trader pricing aligns with these confirmed trends and the absence of offsetting policy reversals.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSubió
Subió
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Canada’s population has declined for multiple consecutive quarters through mid-2026, driven by the federal government’s 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan, which caps new temporary resident arrivals at 385,000 while stabilizing permanent resident admissions near 380,000. This policy aims to reduce the non-permanent resident share below 5% of the total population by the end of 2027, producing net outflows that offset natural increase and permanent inflows. Statistics Canada data through April 2026 confirm quarterly contractions of 0.1–0.2%, with temporary resident numbers falling sharply after peaking in 2024. Parliamentary Budget Office projections indicate flat or slightly negative growth for the full year, consistent with ongoing caps on study and work permits and tighter financial requirements implemented in 2026. Trader pricing aligns with these confirmed trends and the absence of offsetting policy reversals.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado


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