Recent major incidents have shaped trader views on Codex reliability. A full outage hit the coding agent on September 25, 2026, lasting 56 minutes and knocking out the web app, API, CLI, and VS Code extension due to an internal authentication issue that OpenAI mitigated with an API-key workaround. Additional degraded performance events followed on September 29 and October 7, including elevated errors and thread-creation failures. Broader OpenAI API data shows 21 incidents over the prior 90 days, underscoring persistent infrastructure strain as agent usage scales. With roughly three months left in 2026 and no announced architectural fixes, these patterns support the 79% market-implied odds for another outage.