Justin Gaethje captured the undisputed UFC lightweight title with a fourth-round corner stoppage of Ilia Topuria in June 2026 and has repeatedly stated he will not compete again this year while recovering from hand injuries. With no title bout scheduled before December 31, trader consensus assigns him an 85.9% implied probability of remaining champion at year-end, reflecting his current status and the absence of any interim or unification fight on the immediate calendar. Arman Tsarukyan sits second in the rankings after a recent first-round finish but lacks a confirmed shot before the cutoff. Potential shifts remain narrow and would require an unexpected retirement announcement, medical issue forcing a vacancy, or an unscheduled bout that Gaethje loses.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJustin Gaethje 85.9%
Arman Tsarukyan 11.1%
Charles Oliveira <1%
Ilia Topuria <1%
$704,486 Vol.
$704,486 Vol.
Ilia Topuria
1%
Arman Tsarukyan
11%
Charles Oliveira
1%
Max Holloway
<1%
Justin Gaethje
86%
Paddy Pimblett
<1%
Dan Hooker
<1%
Mateusz Gamrot
<1%
Benoît Saint Denis
<1%
Rafael Fiziev
<1%
Renato Moicano
<1%
Mauricio Ruffy
<1%
Justin Gaethje 85.9%
Arman Tsarukyan 11.1%
Charles Oliveira <1%
Ilia Topuria <1%
$704,486 Vol.
$704,486 Vol.
Ilia Topuria
1%
Arman Tsarukyan
11%
Charles Oliveira
1%
Max Holloway
<1%
Justin Gaethje
86%
Paddy Pimblett
<1%
Dan Hooker
<1%
Mateusz Gamrot
<1%
Benoît Saint Denis
<1%
Rafael Fiziev
<1%
Renato Moicano
<1%
Mauricio Ruffy
<1%
Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 4, 2026, 2:29 PM ET
Abwickler
0x2F5e3684c...Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Abwickler
0x2F5e3684c...Justin Gaethje captured the undisputed UFC lightweight title with a fourth-round corner stoppage of Ilia Topuria in June 2026 and has repeatedly stated he will not compete again this year while recovering from hand injuries. With no title bout scheduled before December 31, trader consensus assigns him an 85.9% implied probability of remaining champion at year-end, reflecting his current status and the absence of any interim or unification fight on the immediate calendar. Arman Tsarukyan sits second in the rankings after a recent first-round finish but lacks a confirmed shot before the cutoff. Potential shifts remain narrow and would require an unexpected retirement announcement, medical issue forcing a vacancy, or an unscheduled bout that Gaethje loses.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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