Trader consensus assigns an 82% implied probability to no model reaching 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026, driven primarily by the roughly 45-point gap between current leaders like Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 at 1506 and the threshold, alongside only incremental Elo gains from recent releases. Anthropic holds the next-highest odds at 15% due to its repeated frontier positioning across text and coding arenas, though even its latest variants show modest rather than accelerated progress. OpenAI, Google, and others trail further behind at low single-digit probabilities, reflecting slower relative gains and the compressed timeline to year-end that makes large capability jumps unlikely without major breakthroughs.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertKeines im Jahr 2026 82%
Anthropic 15%
OpenAI 4.5%
xAI <1%
$124,495 Vol.
$124,495 Vol.

Keines im Jahr 2026
82%

Anthropic
15%

OpenAI
5%

xAI
1%

Alibaba
1%

1%

DeepSeek
1%

Z.ai
1%

Mistral
<1%
Keines im Jahr 2026 82%
Anthropic 15%
OpenAI 4.5%
xAI <1%
$124,495 Vol.
$124,495 Vol.

Keines im Jahr 2026
82%

Anthropic
15%

OpenAI
5%

xAI
1%

Alibaba
1%

1%

DeepSeek
1%

Z.ai
1%

Mistral
<1%
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Abwickler
0x2F5e3684c...Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Abwickler
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus assigns an 82% implied probability to no model reaching 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026, driven primarily by the roughly 45-point gap between current leaders like Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 at 1506 and the threshold, alongside only incremental Elo gains from recent releases. Anthropic holds the next-highest odds at 15% due to its repeated frontier positioning across text and coding arenas, though even its latest variants show modest rather than accelerated progress. OpenAI, Google, and others trail further behind at low single-digit probabilities, reflecting slower relative gains and the compressed timeline to year-end that makes large capability jumps unlikely without major breakthroughs.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert


Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen