**U.S. nuclear testing remains governed by a voluntary moratorium in place since 1992.** Trader consensus assigns low probabilities to any U.S. nuclear explosive test—defined as an intentional non-combat detonation producing a fission or fusion chain reaction—by near-term deadlines, reflecting repeated administration clarifications that recent directives refer to subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic tests, and stockpile stewardship activities at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full-yield underground detonations. President Trump’s October 2025 announcement to test “on an equal basis” with Russia and China initially raised concerns, yet Energy Department and NNSA statements quickly narrowed the scope to non-explosive work, consistent with annual certifications that the arsenal remains reliable without explosive testing. No such test has occurred through mid-2026, and preparing infrastructure for one would require months to years. Key upcoming factors include budget decisions on the stockpile stewardship program and any diplomatic responses to unverified foreign activities, though structural and technical barriers continue to constrain near-term shifts in implied probabilities.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertUS-Atomtest von...?
US-Atomtest von...?
$795,296 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
30. September 2026
1%
31. Dezember 2026
5%
$795,296 Vol.
30. September 2026
$57,565 Vol.
1%
31. Dezember 2026
$76,920 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**U.S. nuclear testing remains governed by a voluntary moratorium in place since 1992.** Trader consensus assigns low probabilities to any U.S. nuclear explosive test—defined as an intentional non-combat detonation producing a fission or fusion chain reaction—by near-term deadlines, reflecting repeated administration clarifications that recent directives refer to subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic tests, and stockpile stewardship activities at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full-yield underground detonations. President Trump’s October 2025 announcement to test “on an equal basis” with Russia and China initially raised concerns, yet Energy Department and NNSA statements quickly narrowed the scope to non-explosive work, consistent with annual certifications that the arsenal remains reliable without explosive testing. No such test has occurred through mid-2026, and preparing infrastructure for one would require months to years. Key upcoming factors include budget decisions on the stockpile stewardship program and any diplomatic responses to unverified foreign activities, though structural and technical barriers continue to constrain near-term shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volumen
$795,296Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**U.S. nuclear testing remains governed by a voluntary moratorium in place since 1992.** Trader consensus assigns low probabilities to any U.S. nuclear explosive test—defined as an intentional non-combat detonation producing a fission or fusion chain reaction—by near-term deadlines, reflecting repeated administration clarifications that recent directives refer to subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic tests, and stockpile stewardship activities at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full-yield underground detonations. President Trump’s October 2025 announcement to test “on an equal basis” with Russia and China initially raised concerns, yet Energy Department and NNSA statements quickly narrowed the scope to non-explosive work, consistent with annual certifications that the arsenal remains reliable without explosive testing. No such test has occurred through mid-2026, and preparing infrastructure for one would require months to years. Key upcoming factors include budget decisions on the stockpile stewardship program and any diplomatic responses to unverified foreign activities, though structural and technical barriers continue to constrain near-term shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$795,296Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...**U.S. nuclear testing remains governed by a voluntary moratorium in place since 1992.** Trader consensus assigns low probabilities to any U.S. nuclear explosive test—defined as an intentional non-combat detonation producing a fission or fusion chain reaction—by near-term deadlines, reflecting repeated administration clarifications that recent directives refer to subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic tests, and stockpile stewardship activities at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full-yield underground detonations. President Trump’s October 2025 announcement to test “on an equal basis” with Russia and China initially raised concerns, yet Energy Department and NNSA statements quickly narrowed the scope to non-explosive work, consistent with annual certifications that the arsenal remains reliable without explosive testing. No such test has occurred through mid-2026, and preparing infrastructure for one would require months to years. Key upcoming factors include budget decisions on the stockpile stewardship program and any diplomatic responses to unverified foreign activities, though structural and technical barriers continue to constrain near-term shifts in implied probabilities.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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