Maduro's US capture in a January 2026 military raid and subsequent detention in New York have anchored trader views, with recent October superseding indictments adding conspiracy-to-torture counts to existing narco-terrorism and drug trafficking charges. The June 2027 trial date, combined with defense assertions of sovereign immunity and not-guilty pleas, contributes to the leading "no prison time" consensus by highlighting procedural uncertainties, possible plea resolutions, or geopolitical shifts under the current US administration. If convicted on all counts, mandatory minimums could exceed 50 years, supporting the secondary 60+ outcome, yet the wide gap to lower ranges reflects limited near-term resolution prospects and historical patterns in complex extraterritorial cases.