Strong El Niño conditions, with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center assigning over 90% odds of a very strong event through fall and winter 2026-27, represent the main driver shaping early-season temperature and precipitation patterns. A warm ridge currently suppressing Arctic air across the northern tier has kept measurable snowfall (typically 0.1 inch or greater per National Weather Service criteria) confined to the highest mountain elevations, where isolated dustings occurred in late August and early September. Historical first-snow medians place October events in the northern Rockies and Plains, November across the Upper Midwest and interior Northeast, and early December in cities such as New York. Short-term National Weather Service probability forecasts and the next CPC update scheduled for October 8 will provide key signals on whether an early cold outbreak can overcome the El Niño warmth and shift timing.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertErster Schnee der Saison 2026
$12,111 Vol.

Buffalo, NY bis zum 31. Oktober
67%

Denver, CO bis zum 31. Oktober
78%

Minneapolis, MN bis zum 31. Oktober
55%

Salt Lake City, UT bis zum 31. Oktober
47%

Boston, MA bis zum 15. November
69%

Buffalo, NY bis zum 15. November
82%

Chicago, IL bis zum 15. November
79%

Denver, CO bis zum 15. November
63%

Detroit, MI bis zum 15. November
87%

Indianapolis, IN bis zum 15. November
91%

Kansas City, MO bis zum 15. November
53%

Minneapolis, MN bis zum 15. November
90%

Pittsburgh, PA bis zum 15. November
63%

Salt Lake City, UT bis zum 15. November
79%

Boston, MA bis zum 30. November
84%

Buffalo, NY bis zum 30. November
94%

Chicago, IL bis zum 30. November
78%

Cincinnati, OH bis zum 30. November
83%

Dallas, TX bis zum 30. November
30%

Denver, CO bis zum 30. November
99%

Detroit, MI bis zum 30. November
85%

Indianapolis, IN bis zum 30. November
98%

Kansas City, MO bis zum 30. November
72%

Minneapolis, MN bis zum 30. November
94%

Nashville, TN bis zum 30. November
29%

New York City, NY bis zum 30. November
68%

Philadelphia, PA bis 30. November
88%

Pittsburgh, PA bis zum 30. November
77%

Salt Lake City, UT bis zum 30. November
86%

St. Louis, MO bis zum 30. November
75%

Washington, DC bis zum 30. November
43%
$12,111 Vol.

Buffalo, NY bis zum 31. Oktober
67%

Denver, CO bis zum 31. Oktober
78%

Minneapolis, MN bis zum 31. Oktober
55%

Salt Lake City, UT bis zum 31. Oktober
47%

Boston, MA bis zum 15. November
69%

Buffalo, NY bis zum 15. November
82%

Chicago, IL bis zum 15. November
79%

Denver, CO bis zum 15. November
63%

Detroit, MI bis zum 15. November
87%

Indianapolis, IN bis zum 15. November
91%

Kansas City, MO bis zum 15. November
53%

Minneapolis, MN bis zum 15. November
90%

Pittsburgh, PA bis zum 15. November
63%

Salt Lake City, UT bis zum 15. November
79%

Boston, MA bis zum 30. November
84%

Buffalo, NY bis zum 30. November
94%

Chicago, IL bis zum 30. November
78%

Cincinnati, OH bis zum 30. November
83%

Dallas, TX bis zum 30. November
30%

Denver, CO bis zum 30. November
99%

Detroit, MI bis zum 30. November
85%

Indianapolis, IN bis zum 30. November
98%

Kansas City, MO bis zum 30. November
72%

Minneapolis, MN bis zum 30. November
94%

Nashville, TN bis zum 30. November
29%

New York City, NY bis zum 30. November
68%

Philadelphia, PA bis 30. November
88%

Pittsburgh, PA bis zum 30. November
77%

Salt Lake City, UT bis zum 30. November
86%

St. Louis, MO bis zum 30. November
75%

Washington, DC bis zum 30. November
43%
Any amount of snowfall qualifies, including a report of "T" (trace) - snow observed but too little to measure. Once snowfall is reported, this market resolves "Yes" immediately, without waiting for the rest of the window. This market resolves "No" only if no snowfall is reported for any day of the window.
The observation day is the National Weather Service climate day at KIND (midnight to midnight local time, America/Indiana/Indianapolis).
Resolution is based on the station's first published snowfall figure for each day, as given in the first final Daily Climate Report for that day. Intermediate reports issued during the day are not used. Subsequent revisions or corrections will not be considered; the first published value is final. A report whose snowfall value is missing (for example, shown as "M") does not count as a published value; the snowfall figure for that day will be taken from the first subsequent report that includes one. If a day's snowfall value is missing but the month-to-date or season-to-date snowfall total in that day's final report is higher than in the previous day's final report, snow fell on that day and this market resolves "Yes". This market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as any day's report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as every day of the window has a published snowfall figure and every figure is zero. There is no waiting period. If any day's snowfall figure remains unpublished, the market will remain open until the earlier of the figure being published or the 3rd day after the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, at which point any such day is treated as zero snowfall.
The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report for KIND, issued as product CLIIND. That page shows the latest report only; past daily reports are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?by=pil&pil=CLIIND.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 2, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
Any amount of snowfall qualifies, including a report of "T" (trace) - snow observed but too little to measure. Once snowfall is reported, this market resolves "Yes" immediately, without waiting for the rest of the window. This market resolves "No" only if no snowfall is reported for any day of the window.
The observation day is the National Weather Service climate day at KIND (midnight to midnight local time, America/Indiana/Indianapolis).
Resolution is based on the station's first published snowfall figure for each day, as given in the first final Daily Climate Report for that day. Intermediate reports issued during the day are not used. Subsequent revisions or corrections will not be considered; the first published value is final. A report whose snowfall value is missing (for example, shown as "M") does not count as a published value; the snowfall figure for that day will be taken from the first subsequent report that includes one. If a day's snowfall value is missing but the month-to-date or season-to-date snowfall total in that day's final report is higher than in the previous day's final report, snow fell on that day and this market resolves "Yes". This market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as any day's report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as every day of the window has a published snowfall figure and every figure is zero. There is no waiting period. If any day's snowfall figure remains unpublished, the market will remain open until the earlier of the figure being published or the 3rd day after the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, at which point any such day is treated as zero snowfall.
The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report for KIND, issued as product CLIIND. That page shows the latest report only; past daily reports are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?by=pil&pil=CLIIND.
Strong El Niño conditions, with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center assigning over 90% odds of a very strong event through fall and winter 2026-27, represent the main driver shaping early-season temperature and precipitation patterns. A warm ridge currently suppressing Arctic air across the northern tier has kept measurable snowfall (typically 0.1 inch or greater per National Weather Service criteria) confined to the highest mountain elevations, where isolated dustings occurred in late August and early September. Historical first-snow medians place October events in the northern Rockies and Plains, November across the Upper Midwest and interior Northeast, and early December in cities such as New York. Short-term National Weather Service probability forecasts and the next CPC update scheduled for October 8 will provide key signals on whether an early cold outbreak can overcome the El Niño warmth and shift timing.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert

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