The early rounds of the 2026-27 DFB-Pokal, with the second-round draw completed and matches set for late October, keep implied probabilities spread across a deep field of Bundesliga sides. Bayern Munich sits at the front with 43.4% as defending champions and the squad with the strongest depth and recent domestic cup pedigree, yet the single-elimination structure and potential for lower-league upsets in the opening stages limit any single team’s dominance. Borussia Dortmund at 15.0%, followed by RB Leipzig and Bayer Leverkusen near 10-11%, reflect their current form, squad quality, and historical paths to Berlin, while the long tail of teams from 7% downward captures the realistic chance of momentum shifts, injuries, or favorable draws altering trajectories before the quarterfinals. Trader consensus thus prices the competition as wide open despite the favorites’ advantages.