Persistent drought covers roughly 77% of U.S. cotton acreage as of late September 2026, driven by rapid intensification across Texas, Oklahoma, and the Delta states amid above-average heat and minimal rainfall through August and September. Recent tropical moisture from eastern Pacific systems delivered localized relief to western Texas and parts of Oklahoma, while scattered showers elsewhere offered limited improvement before a dominant dry pattern returned. Official U.S. Drought Monitor updates and USDA crop-condition data will determine the exact share for the October 6 week, with model consensus pointing to continued dry conditions that could sustain or slightly ease severe-to-exceptional classifications depending on rainfall totals. Traders weigh these short-term precipitation shifts against entrenched soil-moisture deficits when assessing probabilities across the closely matched low- and high-percentage outcomes.