**Takaichi and Xi last held a bilateral summit on the sidelines of APEC in South Korea on October 31, 2025, shortly after her selection as Japan’s prime minister, where they reaffirmed pursuit of a “strategic mutually beneficial relationship” and “constructive and stable ties” while addressing East China Sea issues, rare earth export controls, and Taiwan stability.** Since then, relations have faced sustained friction. Takaichi’s November 2025 Diet remarks linking a Taiwan contingency to Japan’s “survival-threatening situation” prompted Beijing to impose targeted measures, including restrictions on Japanese seafood imports and critical minerals, alongside diplomatic protests. No further in-person leader-level meeting has occurred through September 2026 despite occasional lower-level parliamentary and business exchanges. The primary near-term catalyst is the November 2026 APEC summit hosted by China in Shenzhen, where attendance by both leaders is expected and sideline contact is diplomatically routine. Trader pricing for a meeting by year-end reflects the tension between these multilateral opportunities and ongoing bilateral strains, with historical precedent favoring brief encounters at such forums even amid disputes. Resolution hinges on verifiable in-person interaction reported by credible sources before the market deadline.