The ongoing Bundibugyo strain Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, declared in May 2026 and now the country's largest on record with over 7,200 confirmed cases and 3,500 deaths across seven provinces, anchors trader sentiment around high implied probability for DRC involvement through year-end. Rapid early growth outpaced prior epidemics, fueled by conflict zones, displacement, and limited vaccines or treatments for this variant, though recent data shows daily cases declining from peaks and some health zones stabilizing. Uganda recorded 20 cases before its outbreak ended in July, while France saw one imported case with no further transmission. Low global spread risk and no community cases outside affected areas keep probabilities tight for additional countries, with upcoming containment milestones and any cross-border detections as key swing factors.